Rush Analytics for Modeling the Impact of Shelter in Place

Bala Hota, MD, MPH, VP & Chief Analytics Officer, Rush University Medical Center. Dr. Hota shares the background of how Rush developed predictive models to track the COVID-19 spread across Illinois (one of the U.S. states with the most coronavirus cases) and in particular the impact of Illinois’ shelter-in-place policies. The state, which has reported more than 19,180 confirmed cases, stretched the number of days over which cases double from every 2.1 days on March 22 to 7.9 days as of April 9. The implied “doubling rate” is a key indicator public health officials use to project the number of COVID-19 patients that hospitals can expect to see, as well as how many doctors, nurses, beds, ventilators and masks may be needed and when. The analysis by Rush tracked the growth rate from the day hot-spot states confirmed their 100th cases and found Illinois’ rate of doubling is taking longer than New York, California and Washington state at this stage in its outbreak. Dr. Hota also shares how Rush is continuing to model the resulting impact on testing, tracing, and easing the state’s population back into daily activities.